How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Mogren, at 49.8%. The other outcomes represent 50.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 49.8% · Draw: 23.5% · Away win: 26.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Mogren 1455; Kom 1432. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Second League · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 13:00
Mogren
Elo 1455
1
-
1
Kom
Elo 1432
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+24
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Mogren1455
Kom1432
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Mogren
0Draws
0Kom
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
50%
Draw
24%
Away
27%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
35%
Draw
39%
Away
25%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.