How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Hammarby Talang, at 58.8%. The other outcomes represent 41.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 20.7% · Draw: 20.4% · Away win: 58.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Umeå FC 1642; Hammarby Talang 1846. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Ettan - Norra · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 15:00
Umeå FC
Elo 1642
2
-
1
Hammarby Talang
Elo 1846
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-204
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Umeå FC1642
Hammarby Talang1846
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Umeå FC
0Draws
0Hammarby Talang
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
59% conf.
WRONG
Home
21%
Draw
20%
Away
59%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
78%
No
22%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
24%
Draw
36%
Away
40%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.