How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Castellón, at 76.7%. The other outcomes represent 23.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 76.7% · Draw: 12.6% · Away win: 10.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Castellón 1920; AD Ceuta FC 1739. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 16:30
Castellón
Elo 1920
1
-
1
AD Ceuta FC
Elo 1739
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
+182
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Castellón1920
AD Ceuta FC1739
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Castellón
2Draws
0AD Ceuta FC
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
77% conf.
WRONG
Home
77%
@ 1.23
Draw
13%
@ 6.05
Away
11%
@ 9.53
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
@ 1.71
No
40%
Away Clean Sheet
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
9%
No
91%
Home Clean Sheet
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Double Chance 1X
97% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
97%
@ 1.05
No
3%
Double Chance X2
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
Half-Time Result
67% conf.
CORRECT
Home
67%
@ 1.60
Draw
22%
@ 2.93
Away
11%
@ 7.48
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
@ 1.19
No
17%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
87%
@ 1.09
No
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
@ 1.35
No
36%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.