How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sporting Gijon, at 59.2%. The other outcomes represent 40.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 59.2% · Draw: 23.3% · Away win: 17.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sporting Gijon 1786; Celta de Vigo II 1789. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 14:15
Sporting Gijon
Elo 1786
3
-
2
Celta de Vigo II
Elo 1789
FT
HT 2-1
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-3
Elo rating comparison
Sporting Gijon1786
Celta de Vigo II1789
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Sporting Gijon
—Draws
—Celta de Vigo II
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
59% conf.
CORRECT
Home
59%
@ 1.53
Draw
23%
@ 4.02
Away
18%
@ 5.49
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
@ 1.79
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
@ 1.13
No
16%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Half-Time Result
54% conf.
CORRECT
Home
54%
@ 2.03
Draw
32%
@ 2.34
Away
14%
@ 5.53
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
@ 1.32
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
@ 1.22
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
@ 1.73
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.