How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Las Palmas, at 43.4%. The other outcomes represent 56.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 43.4% · Draw: 25.5% · Away win: 31%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Las Palmas 1826; Valladolid 1741. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 16:30
Las Palmas
Elo 1826
2
-
2
Valladolid
Elo 1741
FT
HT 1-2
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Elo Advantage
+85
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Las Palmas1826
Valladolid1741
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Las Palmas
0Draws
0Valladolid
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
43%
@ 2.16
Draw
26%
@ 3.18
Away
31%
@ 3.27
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
@ 1.30
No
35%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
@ 1.66
No
39%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
35%
@ 2.75
Draw
45%
@ 2.07
Away
20%
@ 3.94
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
WRONG
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
@ 1.42
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Over 1.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
@ 1.30
No
32%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.