How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Compostela, at 41.4%. The other outcomes represent 58.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 41.4% · Draw: 21.5% · Away win: 37.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Compostela 1625; Real Oviedo II 1683. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 15:00
Compostela
Elo 1625
1
-
2
Real Oviedo II
Elo 1683
FT
HT 1-2
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Elo Advantage
-59
Elo rating comparison
Compostela1625
Real Oviedo II1683
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Compostela
—Draws
—Real Oviedo II
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
41%
Draw
21%
Away
37%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
No
39%
Half-Time Result
37% conf.
WRONG
Home
32%
Draw
37%
Away
32%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
No
42%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.