How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Real Madrid III, at 36.8%. The other outcomes represent 63.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 30.5% · Draw: 32.7% · Away win: 36.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Atlético Paso 1626; Real Madrid III 1625. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 18:30
Atlético Paso
Elo 1626
1
-
0
Real Madrid III
Elo 1625
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
+1
Elo rating comparison
Atlético Paso1626
Real Madrid III1625
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Atlético Paso
—Draws
—Real Madrid III
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
37% conf.
WRONG
Home
31%
@ 2.90
Draw
33%
@ 3.14
Away
37%
@ 2.34
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
@ 1.50
No
36%
Double Chance X2
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
72%
@ 1.32
No
28%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
23%
@ 3.65
Draw
46%
@ 2.00
Away
31%
@ 3.10
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
@ 1.46
No
38%
HT Over 1.5
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
69%
@ 1.39
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
16%
No
84%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.