How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Barcelona W, at 78.9%. The other outcomes represent 21.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 78.9% · Draw: 12% · Away win: 9.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Barcelona W 2419; Real Madrid W 2070. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 7–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera División Femenina · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 17:00
Barcelona W
Elo 2419
7
-
0
Real Madrid W
Elo 2070
FT
HT 5-0
Home Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Away Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
+349
H2H (7)
7H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Barcelona W2419
Real Madrid W2070
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
7Barcelona W
0Draws
0Real Madrid W
7 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
79% conf.
CORRECT
Home
79%
Draw
12%
Away
9%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
8%
No
92%
Home Clean Sheet
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Half-Time Result
56% conf.
CORRECT
Home
56%
Draw
29%
Away
15%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 1.5 Goals
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
87%
No
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 3.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.