How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Saguntino, at 52.7%. The other outcomes represent 47.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 52.7% · Draw: 24.9% · Away win: 22.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Saguntino 1594; Utiel 1437. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 16:00
Saguntino
Elo 1594
3
-
2
Utiel
Elo 1437
FT
HT 2-1
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+157
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Saguntino1594
Utiel1437
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Saguntino
0Draws
0Utiel
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
53% conf.
CORRECT
Home
53%
Draw
25%
Away
22%
Both Teams to Score
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
No
48%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Half-Time Result
49% conf.
CORRECT
Home
49%
Draw
35%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
WRONG
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.