How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Katsina United, at 38.1%. The other outcomes represent 61.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 37.2% · Draw: 24.7% · Away win: 38.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Inter Lagos 1463; Katsina United 1539. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
NPFL · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 15:00
Inter Lagos
Elo 1463
1
-
1
Katsina United
Elo 1539
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
-76
Elo rating comparison
Inter Lagos1463
Katsina United1539
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Inter Lagos
—Draws
—Katsina United
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
37%
Draw
25%
Away
38%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Half-Time Result
37% conf.
CORRECT
Home
30%
Draw
37%
Away
32%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.