How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Samartex, at 56.4%. The other outcomes represent 43.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 56.4% · Draw: 29.2% · Away win: 14.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Samartex 1605; Young Apostles 1526. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 15:00
Samartex
Elo 1605
1
-
0
Young Apostles
Elo 1526
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+79
H2H (5)
1H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Samartex1605
Young Apostles1526
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Samartex
0Draws
4Young Apostles
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
56% conf.
CORRECT
Home
56%
Draw
29%
Away
14%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
38%
Draw
46%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.