How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Porreres, at 58.1%. The other outcomes represent 41.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 58.1% · Draw: 21.5% · Away win: 20.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Porreres 1560; Santanyí 1502. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 15:30
Porreres
Elo 1560
0
-
1
Santanyí
Elo 1502
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
+58
Elo rating comparison
Porreres1560
Santanyí1502
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Porreres
—Draws
—Santanyí
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
58% conf.
WRONG
Home
58%
Draw
22%
Away
20%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
WRONG
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
44%
Draw
41%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.