How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Covadonga, at 75.6%. The other outcomes represent 24.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 75.6% · Draw: 15.4% · Away win: 8.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Covadonga 1737; Siero 1404. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 10:30
Covadonga
Elo 1737
2
-
1
Siero
Elo 1404
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+333
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Covadonga1737
Siero1404
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Covadonga
0Draws
0Siero
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
76% conf.
CORRECT
Home
76%
Draw
15%
Away
9%
Both Teams to Score
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Away Clean Sheet
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Home Clean Sheet
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Half-Time Result
57% conf.
WRONG
Home
57%
Draw
29%
Away
14%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
No
39%
Over 3.5 Goals
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.