How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Lealtad, at 64.8%. The other outcomes represent 35.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 64.8% · Draw: 20% · Away win: 15.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Lealtad 1534; Avilés Stadium 1390. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 10:00
Lealtad
Elo 1534
2
-
0
Avilés Stadium
Elo 1390
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+144
Elo rating comparison
Lealtad1534
Avilés Stadium1390
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Lealtad
—Draws
—Avilés Stadium
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
65% conf.
CORRECT
Home
65%
Draw
20%
Away
15%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Double Chance X2
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
48%
Draw
40%
Away
12%
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 3.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.