How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Tropezón, at 50.9%. The other outcomes represent 49.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 25.6% · Draw: 23.6% · Away win: 50.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Castro 1445; Tropezón 1687. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 15:00
Castro
Elo 1445
0
-
2
Tropezón
Elo 1687
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-242
H2H (4)
0H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Castro1445
Tropezón1687
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Castro
0Draws
4Tropezón
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
51% conf.
CORRECT
Home
26%
Draw
24%
Away
51%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
22%
Draw
39%
Away
39%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.