How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Torina, at 42.8%. The other outcomes represent 57.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 42.8% · Draw: 28.7% · Away win: 28.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Torina 1566; Guarnizo 1565. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 15:30
Torina
Elo 1566
1
-
1
Guarnizo
Elo 1565
FT
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
+1
H2H (4)
0H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Torina1566
Guarnizo1565
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Torina
4Draws
0Guarnizo
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
43%
Draw
29%
Away
28%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
Home
27%
Draw
47%
Away
26%
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
72% conf.
Yes
28%
No
72%
Over 1.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.