How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Lagun Onak, at 55.5%. The other outcomes represent 44.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 55.5% · Draw: 23.1% · Away win: 21.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Lagun Onak 1555; Aretxabaleta 1452. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 15:00
Lagun Onak
Elo 1555
1
-
2
Aretxabaleta
Elo 1452
FT
HT 1-2
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+103
H2H (3)
0H
0D
3A
Elo rating comparison
Lagun Onak1555
Aretxabaleta1452
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Lagun Onak
0Draws
3Aretxabaleta
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
55% conf.
WRONG
Home
55%
Draw
23%
Away
21%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
44%
Draw
38%
Away
18%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.