How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Touring, at 48.1%. The other outcomes represent 51.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 48.1% · Draw: 26.6% · Away win: 25.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Touring 1560; Durango 1500. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 14:30
Touring
Elo 1560
2
-
2
Durango
Elo 1500
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+60
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Touring1560
Durango1500
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Touring
0Draws
2Durango
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
48%
Draw
27%
Away
25%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
39%
Draw
38%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Over 1.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 3.5 Goals
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Win to Nil
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.