How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Vilassar Mar, at 37.0%. The other outcomes represent 63.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 37% · Draw: 26.8% · Away win: 36.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Vilassar Mar 1408; Europa II 1487. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–6. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 16:15
Vilassar Mar
Elo 1408
1
-
6
Europa II
Elo 1487
FT
HT 1-3
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
-79
H2H (1)
0H
1D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Vilassar Mar1408
Europa II1487
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Vilassar Mar
1Draws
0Europa II
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
37% conf.
WRONG
Home
37%
Draw
27%
Away
36%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
27%
Draw
44%
Away
29%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.