How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Villarreal III, at 42.9%. The other outcomes represent 57.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 34% · Draw: 23% · Away win: 42.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Ontinyent 1931 1517; Villarreal III 1657. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 16:00
Ontinyent 1931
Elo 1517
1
-
2
Villarreal III
Elo 1657
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
-141
H2H (3)
0H
0D
3A
Elo rating comparison
Ontinyent 19311517
Villarreal III1657
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Ontinyent 1931
0Draws
3Villarreal III
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
34%
Draw
23%
Away
43%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Away Clean Sheet
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Double Chance X2
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
22%
Draw
38%
Away
41%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.