How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Torrejón, at 41.8%. The other outcomes represent 58.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 41.8% · Draw: 27.4% · Away win: 30.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Torrejón 1534; Unión Adarve 1558. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 09:30
Torrejón
Elo 1534
4
-
0
Unión Adarve
Elo 1558
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Elo Advantage
-24
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Torrejón1534
Unión Adarve1558
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Torrejón
2Draws
0Unión Adarve
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
42%
Draw
27%
Away
31%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
31%
Draw
38%
Away
31%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.