How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Trival Valderas, at 43.6%. The other outcomes represent 56.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 43.6% · Draw: 28.7% · Away win: 27.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Trival Valderas 1591; Las Rozas 1571. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 09:30
Trival Valderas
Elo 1591
2
-
1
Las Rozas
Elo 1571
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+21
H2H (10)
6H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Trival Valderas1591
Las Rozas1571
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
6Trival Valderas
4Draws
0Las Rozas
10 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
44%
Draw
29%
Away
28%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
33%
Draw
40%
Away
27%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.