How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bembibre, at 39.1%. The other outcomes represent 60.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 39.1% · Draw: 23.9% · Away win: 37%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Bembibre 1425; La Virgen del Camino 1493. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 15:00
Bembibre
Elo 1425
2
-
0
La Virgen del Camino
Elo 1493
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-68
H2H (4)
0H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Bembibre1425
La Virgen del Camino1493
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Bembibre
0Draws
4La Virgen del Camino
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
39%
Draw
24%
Away
37%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
Draw
44%
Away
26%
HT Both Teams Score
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.