How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Santa Cruz, at 43.3%. The other outcomes represent 56.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 31.2% · Draw: 25.5% · Away win: 43.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Alcantarilla 1372; Santa Cruz 1525. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 16:00
Alcantarilla
Elo 1372
1
-
1
Santa Cruz
Elo 1525
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-153
Elo rating comparison
Alcantarilla1372
Santa Cruz1525
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Alcantarilla
—Draws
—Santa Cruz
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
31%
Draw
25%
Away
43%
Both Teams to Score
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Away Clean Sheet
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
23%
Draw
34%
Away
43%
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
69%
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 3.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.