How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Olímpico Totana, at 41.6%. The other outcomes represent 58.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 41.6% · Draw: 29.3% · Away win: 29.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Olímpico Totana 1550; UCAM Murcia II 1604. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 16:00
Olímpico Totana
Elo 1550
1
-
0
UCAM Murcia II
Elo 1604
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
4D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
4D
0L
Elo Advantage
-54
H2H (1)
0H
1D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Olímpico Totana1550
UCAM Murcia II1604
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Olímpico Totana
1Draws
0UCAM Murcia II
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
42%
Draw
29%
Away
29%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
35%
Draw
41%
Away
24%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Over 1.5 Goals
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 3.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.