How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Atlético Pulpileño, at 48.9%. The other outcomes represent 51.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 48.9% · Draw: 24.6% · Away win: 26.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Atlético Pulpileño 1553; Santomera 1476. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 09:30
Atlético Pulpileño
Elo 1553
2
-
3
Santomera
Elo 1476
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
4D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+76
H2H (3)
3H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Atlético Pulpileño1553
Santomera1476
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
3Atlético Pulpileño
0Draws
0Santomera
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
49% conf.
WRONG
Home
49%
Draw
25%
Away
27%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
37%
Draw
41%
Away
22%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.