How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Cacereño, at 37.1%. The other outcomes represent 62.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 36.3% · Draw: 26.6% · Away win: 37.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Mérida AD 1629; Cacereño 1741. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 16:45
Mérida AD
Elo 1629
2
-
0
Cacereño
Elo 1741
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
-112
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Mérida AD1629
Cacereño1741
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Mérida AD
0Draws
0Cacereño
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
37% conf.
WRONG
Home
36%
Draw
27%
Away
37%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
66%
No
34%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
CORRECT
Home
28%
Draw
46%
Away
26%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.