How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Netherlands, at 68.8%. The other outcomes represent 31.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 68.8% · Draw: 19.3% · Away win: 11.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Netherlands 1839; Serbia 1623. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 18:45
Netherlands
Elo 1839
2
-
1
Serbia
Elo 1623
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Elo Advantage
+215
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Netherlands1839
Serbia1623
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Netherlands
0Draws
0Serbia
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
69% conf.
CORRECT
Home
69%
@ 1.33
Draw
19%
@ 4.82
Away
12%
@ 9.65
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
@ 2.04
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Home Clean Sheet
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
@ 1.04
No
7%
Double Chance X2
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Half-Time Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
50%
@ 1.64
Draw
40%
@ 2.67
Away
10%
@ 9.50
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
@ 1.26
No
19%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
@ 2.13
No
43%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
@ 1.13
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
@ 1.50
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
@ 1.98
No
50%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.