How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Denmark, at 42.2%. The other outcomes represent 57.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 37.5% · Draw: 20.3% · Away win: 42.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Wales 1577; Denmark 1749. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 18:45
Wales
Elo 1577
0
-
1
Denmark
Elo 1749
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-173
H2H (4)
0H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Wales1577
Denmark1749
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Wales
0Draws
4Denmark
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
37%
@ 3.37
Draw
20%
@ 3.93
Away
42%
@ 1.78
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
@ 1.59
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
@ 1.27
No
34%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
24%
@ 3.91
Draw
39%
@ 2.46
Away
37%
@ 2.32
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
73%
@ 1.26
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
77%
@ 1.19
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
@ 1.66
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.