How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Deportivo Pasto, at 47.5%. The other outcomes represent 52.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.5% · Draw: 24.7% · Away win: 27.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Deportivo Pasto 1540; Fortaleza FC 1547. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera A · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 19:00
Deportivo Pasto
Elo 1540
0
-
0
Fortaleza FC
Elo 1547
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
-7
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Deportivo Pasto1540
Fortaleza FC1547
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Deportivo Pasto
0Draws
0Fortaleza FC
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
48%
Draw
25%
Away
28%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
CORRECT
Home
33%
Draw
47%
Away
20%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.