How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Provincial Osorno, at 38.6%. The other outcomes represent 61.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 35.2% · Draw: 26.3% · Away win: 38.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Colchagua 1392; Provincial Osorno 1485. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 19:00
Colchagua
Elo 1392
2
-
0
Provincial Osorno
Elo 1485
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-93
H2H (6)
0H
6D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Colchagua1392
Provincial Osorno1485
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Colchagua
6Draws
0Provincial Osorno
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
35%
Draw
26%
Away
39%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
62%
No
38%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
29%
Draw
42%
Away
29%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 3.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.