How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Aserri FC, at 49.7%. The other outcomes represent 50.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 49.7% · Draw: 22.4% · Away win: 27.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Aserri FC 1460; Guadalupe FC 1406. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga de Ascenso · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 17:00
Aserri FC
Elo 1460
2
-
3
Guadalupe FC
Elo 1406
FT
HT 1-2
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
+55
H2H (3)
3H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Aserri FC1460
Guadalupe FC1406
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
3Aserri FC
0Draws
0Guadalupe FC
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
50%
Draw
22%
Away
28%
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
33%
Draw
39%
Away
28%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.