How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Quepos Cambute, at 46.3%. The other outcomes represent 53.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 30.3% · Draw: 23.4% · Away win: 46.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Aserri FC 1448; Quepos Cambute 1626. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga de Ascenso · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 23:00
Aserri FC
Elo 1448
1
-
0
Quepos Cambute
Elo 1626
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-178
H2H (3)
0H
0D
3A
Elo rating comparison
Aserri FC1448
Quepos Cambute1626
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Aserri FC
0Draws
3Quepos Cambute
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
Draw
23%
Away
46%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Away Clean Sheet
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Clean Sheet
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
73%
No
27%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
22%
Draw
40%
Away
38%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
WRONG
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
WRONG
Yes
13%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.