How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Guastatoya, at 66.8%. The other outcomes represent 33.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 66.8% · Draw: 22.9% · Away win: 10.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Guastatoya 1703; Aurora 1588. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga Nacional · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 23:00
Guastatoya
Elo 1703
2
-
1
Aurora
Elo 1588
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+115
H2H (5)
4H
1D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Guastatoya1703
Aurora1588
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Guastatoya
1Draws
0Aurora
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
67% conf.
CORRECT
Home
67%
Draw
23%
Away
10%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
44%
Draw
44%
Away
13%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 3.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.