How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Aruba, at 74.1%. The other outcomes represent 25.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 74.1% · Draw: 15.5% · Away win: 10.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Aruba 1387; Anguilla 1101. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
CONCACAF Nations League · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 23:00
Aruba
Elo 1387
3
-
2
Anguilla
Elo 1101
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Elo Advantage
+286
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Aruba1387
Anguilla1101
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Aruba
0Draws
0Anguilla
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
74% conf.
CORRECT
Home
74%
Draw
16%
Away
10%
Both Teams to Score
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Half-Time Result
49% conf.
WRONG
Home
49%
Draw
36%
Away
14%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 1.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.