How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bolívar, at 58.7%. The other outcomes represent 41.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 20.9% · Draw: 20.3% · Away win: 58.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Independiente Petrolero 1558; Bolívar 1890. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Copa de la División Profesional · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 23:30
Independiente Petrolero
Elo 1558
0
-
3
Bolívar
Elo 1890
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
-333
H2H (11)
2H
4D
5A
Elo rating comparison
Independiente Petrolero1558
Bolívar1890
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Independiente Petrolero
4Draws
5Bolívar
11 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
59% conf.
CORRECT
Home
21%
Draw
20%
Away
59%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Home Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
21%
Draw
35%
Away
44%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.