How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is FAS, at 75.4%. The other outcomes represent 24.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 75.4% · Draw: 16.2% · Away win: 8.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: FAS 1791; Inca Aruba 1465. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Division · Monday, Oct 5 2026
· 01:00
FAS
Elo 1791
vs
Inca Aruba
Elo 1465
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
+326
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
FAS1791
Inca Aruba1465
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1FAS
0Draws
0Inca Aruba
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
75% conf.
Home
75%
Draw
16%
Away
8%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
Yes
47%
No
53%
Away Clean Sheet
92% conf.
Yes
8%
No
92%
Home Clean Sheet
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Double Chance 1X
89% conf.
Yes
89%
No
11%
Double Chance X2
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Half-Time Result
53% conf.
Home
53%
Draw
36%
Away
11%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
Yes
58%
No
42%
Over 3.5 Goals
64% conf.
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.