How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Cardoso Moreira, at 55.5%. The other outcomes represent 44.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 21.3% · Draw: 23.2% · Away win: 55.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Barra Mansa 1387; Cardoso Moreira 1567. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Carioca B2 · Monday, Oct 5 2026
· 18:00
Barra Mansa
Elo 1387
vs
Cardoso Moreira
Elo 1567
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-181
H2H (3)
0H
3D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Barra Mansa1387
Cardoso Moreira1567
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Barra Mansa
3Draws
0Cardoso Moreira
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
56% conf.
Home
21%
Draw
23%
Away
56%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Clean Sheet
87% conf.
Yes
13%
No
87%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
79% conf.
Yes
79%
No
21%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
Home
19%
Draw
33%
Away
48%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
Yes
52%
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Win to Nil
97% conf.
Yes
3%
No
97%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.