How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Santa Cruz RJ, at 40.6%. The other outcomes represent 59.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 31.6% · Draw: 27.8% · Away win: 40.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Serra Macaense 1457; Santa Cruz RJ 1563. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Carioca B2 · Monday, Oct 5 2026
· 18:00
Serra Macaense
Elo 1457
vs
Santa Cruz RJ
Elo 1563
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
-107
Elo rating comparison
Serra Macaense1457
Santa Cruz RJ1563
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Serra Macaense
—Draws
—Santa Cruz RJ
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
Home
32%
Draw
28%
Away
41%
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
Yes
60%
No
40%
Away Clean Sheet
71% conf.
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Clean Sheet
87% conf.
Yes
13%
No
87%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
69% conf.
Yes
69%
No
31%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
Home
24%
Draw
40%
Away
36%
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.