How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Italy, at 62.4%. The other outcomes represent 37.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 62.4% · Draw: 19% · Away win: 18.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Italy 1763; Türkiye 1688. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Monday, Oct 5 2026
· 18:45
Italy
Elo 1763
vs
Türkiye
Elo 1688
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+75
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Italy1763
Türkiye1688
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Italy
0Draws
0Türkiye
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
62% conf.
Home
62%
Draw
19%
Away
19%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
Home
42%
Draw
42%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
Yes
58%
No
42%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.