How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Ukraine, at 62.0%. The other outcomes represent 38.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 62% · Draw: 24.4% · Away win: 13.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Ukraine 1662; Hungary 1582. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Monday, Oct 5 2026
· 18:45
Ukraine
Elo 1662
vs
Hungary
Elo 1582
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+80
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Ukraine1662
Hungary1582
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Ukraine
0Draws
0Hungary
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
62% conf.
Home
62%
Draw
24%
Away
14%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
54% conf.
Yes
46%
No
54%
Double Chance 1X
89% conf.
Yes
89%
No
11%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
Yes
40%
No
60%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
Home
42%
Draw
42%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
66% conf.
Yes
66%
No
34%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
Yes
73%
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.