How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bosnia & Herzegovina, at 42.1%. The other outcomes represent 57.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 42.1% · Draw: 22.3% · Away win: 35.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1533; Poland 1588. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Monday, Oct 5 2026
· 18:45
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Elo 1533
vs
Poland
Elo 1588
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-55
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Bosnia & Herzegovina1533
Poland1588
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Bosnia & Herzegovina
2Draws
0Poland
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
Home
42%
Draw
22%
Away
36%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
Yes
59%
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
72% conf.
Yes
28%
No
72%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
Home
36%
Draw
40%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
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No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.