How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Romania, at 45.2%. The other outcomes represent 54.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 45.2% · Draw: 22.6% · Away win: 32.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Romania 1532; Sweden 1658. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Monday, Oct 5 2026
· 18:45
Romania
Elo 1532
vs
Sweden
Elo 1658
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-126
H2H (4)
0H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Romania1532
Sweden1658
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Romania
0Draws
4Sweden
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
Home
45%
Draw
23%
Away
32%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
Yes
55%
No
45%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
Home
34%
Draw
43%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
Yes
80%
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
55% conf.
Yes
45%
No
55%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.