How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Montenegro, at 70.1%. The other outcomes represent 29.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 70.1% · Draw: 20.2% · Away win: 9.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Montenegro 1433; Armenia 1318. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Monday, Oct 5 2026
· 18:45
Montenegro
Elo 1433
vs
Armenia
Elo 1318
Home Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+115
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Montenegro1433
Armenia1318
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Montenegro
0Draws
0Armenia
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
70% conf.
Home
70%
Draw
20%
Away
10%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
90% conf.
Yes
10%
No
90%
Home Clean Sheet
60% conf.
Yes
40%
No
60%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
Yes
32%
No
68%
Half-Time Result
51% conf.
Home
51%
Draw
36%
Away
13%
HT Both Teams Score
72% conf.
Yes
28%
No
72%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
Yes
52%
No
48%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.