How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Russia, at 61.1%. The other outcomes represent 38.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 61.1% · Draw: 18.6% · Away win: 20.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Russia 1762; Nigeria 1693. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies · Tuesday, Oct 6 2026
· 16:00
Russia
Elo 1762
3
-
3
Nigeria
Elo 1693
FT
HT 2-1
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+69
Elo rating comparison
Russia1762
Nigeria1693
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Russia
—Draws
—Nigeria
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
WRONG
Home
61%
Draw
19%
Away
20%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
8%
No
92%
Home Clean Sheet
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
48%
Draw
35%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
WRONG
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
87%
No
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.