How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Crewe, at 47.7%. The other outcomes represent 52.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 35.3% · Draw: 17% · Away win: 47.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Blackpool 1681; Crewe 1699. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
EFL Trophy · Tuesday, Oct 6 2026
· 18:00
Blackpool
Elo 1681
2
-
2
Crewe
Elo 1699
PEN
FT 90' 2-2
PEN 4-2
HT 0-1
Predictions evaluated on 90-minute result
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-18
Elo rating comparison
Blackpool1681
Crewe1699
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Blackpool
—Draws
—Crewe
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
35%
Draw
17%
Away
48%
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
31%
Draw
38%
Away
32%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.