How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Plymouth, at 58.4%. The other outcomes represent 41.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 24.7% · Draw: 16.9% · Away win: 58.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Newport County 1606; Plymouth 1861. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
EFL Trophy · Tuesday, Oct 6 2026
· 18:00
Newport County
Elo 1606
2
-
2
Plymouth
Elo 1861
PEN
FT 90' 2-2
PEN 4-5
HT 1-0
Predictions evaluated on 90-minute result
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-255
Elo rating comparison
Newport County1606
Plymouth1861
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Newport County
—Draws
—Plymouth
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
58% conf.
WRONG
Home
25%
Draw
17%
Away
58%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
21%
Draw
40%
Away
39%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.