How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is England, at 75.0%. The other outcomes represent 25.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 75% · Draw: 17.5% · Away win: 7.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: England 1924; Czech Republic 1603. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, Oct 6 2026
· 18:45
England
Elo 1924
3
-
0
Czech Republic
Elo 1603
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Elo Advantage
+321
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
England1924
Czech Republic1603
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4England
0Draws
0Czech Republic
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
75% conf.
CORRECT
Home
75%
Draw
18%
Away
7%
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
9%
No
91%
Home Clean Sheet
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Double Chance 1X
100% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
100%
No
0%
Double Chance X2
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
48%
Draw
42%
Away
10%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.