How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Albania, at 77.8%. The other outcomes represent 22.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 77.8% · Draw: 15.3% · Away win: 6.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Albania 1515; San Marino 978. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, Oct 6 2026
· 18:45
Albania
Elo 1515
2
-
1
San Marino
Elo 978
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Elo Advantage
+537
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Albania1515
San Marino978
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Albania
0Draws
0San Marino
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
78% conf.
CORRECT
Home
78%
Draw
15%
Away
7%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Away Clean Sheet
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
10%
No
90%
Home Clean Sheet
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Double Chance 1X
97% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
97%
No
3%
Double Chance X2
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Half-Time Result
58% conf.
CORRECT
Home
58%
Draw
33%
Away
9%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
No
48%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.