How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Slovakia, at 53.2%. The other outcomes represent 46.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 23.2% · Draw: 23.6% · Away win: 53.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Moldova 1275; Slovakia 1581. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–4. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, Oct 6 2026
· 18:45
Moldova
Elo 1275
0
-
4
Slovakia
Elo 1581
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-306
H2H (4)
0H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Moldova1275
Slovakia1581
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Moldova
0Draws
4Slovakia
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
53% conf.
CORRECT
Home
23%
Draw
24%
Away
53%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
No
20%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
19%
Draw
39%
Away
42%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
97% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
3%
No
97%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.